Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict

What causes war? How can military conflicts best be prevented? The author of this volume frames five conditions that increase the risk of interstate war: false optimism about the likely outcome of a war; first-strike advantage; fluctuation in the relative power of states; circumstances that allow nations to parlay one conquest into another; and circumstances that make conquest easy. Van Evera argues that all but one of these conditions - false optimism - rarely occur today, but policy-makers often erroneously believe in their existence. He demonstrates that these misperceptions are responsible for many modern wars, and explores both World Wars, the Korean War and the 1967 Mideast War as test cases. Finally, he assesses the possibility of nuclear war by applying each of the five hypotheses to its potential onset. The book demonstrates how ideas from the Realist paradigm can offer strong explanations for international conflict and valuable prescriptions for its control.